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與黃金相關性提升!美國銀行:比特幣正重拾「避險資產」地位

By Ken Ho—— 2022-10-25
22 share / 3.9k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

根據美國銀行(Bank of America)的研究,比特幣近期與其他資產的走勢相關性顯示出,過去一直被視為風險資產的比特幣,正重新成為投資人眼中的避險資產。

 

美國銀行數位策略師 Alkesh Shah、Andrew Moss 在報告中指出,自 8 月中旬以來,比特幣與黃金的相關性已從零增加到 0.5 ,代表兩者的價格走勢愈來愈類似。

與此同時,雖然比特幣與標普 500 指數、那斯達克綜合指數的相關度較高,分別為 0.69 和 0.72,但已持平趨緩,低於數個月前的創紀錄水平。

兩位策略師都認為,這意味著比特幣漲跌幾乎與股市同步的趨勢發生了變化:

隨著總體經濟環境仍存在不確定性、市場底部深不可測,比特幣與標普 500 指數、那斯達克綜合指數的正相關減速,反觀與黃金的相關性則是迅速上升,這表明,投資人可能將比特幣視為相對安全的避風港。

在過去幾個月中,比特幣的波動性也顯著下降。另一研究機構 Kaiko 資料顯示,自 2020 年 10 月以來,比特幣的 20 天實際波動率首次跌破標普 500 指數和那斯達克綜合指數的水平。

比特幣常被稱為「數位黃金」,像是避險基金大佬 Paul Tudor Jones 就曾表示,比特幣提供了因應通膨升溫的「避難所」,是長期保護自身財富價值的絕佳工具,稱比特幣是種類似於黃金的財富保值資產。

但是在過去兩年,由於各國政府在疫情時推出的刺激措施導致泡沫出現,以及 Fed 等央行激進升息以應對不斷惡化的通膨,比特幣與股市的連動性一直很高。

CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 曾指出,比特幣對於升息的恐懼相當敏感,「但如果發生政策錯誤,例如 Fed 升息太積極,或者不夠積極,然後又有通膨問題時,那實際上會為比特幣帶來更多支撐、對股票的支撐較少」。

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