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美 9 月CPI 年增 8.2% 略高預期,比特幣秒跌 4% 後大漲 7%!Fed 再升 3 碼機率破 97%

By Ken Ho —— 2022-10-14
35 share / 3.3k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

美國昨晚公布 9 月消費者物價指數(CPI)年增率 8.2%、核心 CPI 率錄得 6.60%,顯現通膨似乎未有明顯緩解。但是美股和比特幣卻在快速下跌後大反轉,美股四大指數漲破2%、比特幣一度逼近 2 萬美元。

 

美國勞動部昨(13)日晚間公布 9 月消費者物價指數(CPI)數據:年增率達 8.2%,略高於市場預期的 8.1%;核心 CPI (排除食品和能源成本)錄得 6.6%,創下近四十年來新高,預期值和前值分別為 6.50% 和 6.30%。

由於服務和商品成本上漲,美國 9 月的通膨數據並不樂觀,可能將在今後一段時間都保持高位。再加上本月 7 日公布的就業數據顯示,勞動市場的良好表現及員工工資持續增長,可能讓美聯儲(Fed)繼續維持強硬的緊縮政策,連續第四次升息 3 碼(75 個基點)。

Source: www.investing.com

比特幣一度逼近 1.8 萬美元後強勁反彈
比特幣(BTC)在昨晚 CPI 數據公布前一分鐘曾短暫突破 $19,000,但隨即跳水超 4%,五分鐘內最低跌到 $18,196。

但短期的賣壓湧現之後,比特幣行情開始反轉,在昨晚 11 點左右開啟強勁反彈,最高在今(14)日清晨三點左右達到 $19,509.99,反轉突破前高,截稿前略有回調,現報 $19,401。

Source:Binance

至於在以太坊(ETH)方面,幣價同樣在數據公布後一度短暫跌破 $1200,截稿前已拉升回到 $1288。

數據來源:Binance

美股四大指數跳水後同樣大反轉

而在美股方面也同樣發生大逆轉的行情,原本道瓊指數開盤一度跌近 550 點,結果收盤飆漲 827 點,最高及最低點差逾 1500 點,創下歷史罕見紀錄。標普 500 指數也同樣收盤勁揚 2.6%,終止連 6 黑。

道瓊指數暴漲 827.87 點( 2.83%),收 30,038.72 點。
那斯達克指數大漲 232.05  點( 2.23%),收 10,649.15 點。
標普 500 指數大漲 92.88 點( 2.6%),收 3,669.91 點。
費城半導體指數大漲 64.6 點( 2.94%),收 2,263.2 點。


Source:finiz

拜登:打擊全球通膨是我的首要任務
CPI 數據公布後,白宮稍晚也發布總統聲明,表示美國在應對通膨挑戰時比任何經濟體更具優勢,但需要採取更多措施快速控制通膨。

「雖然在控制價格上漲方面有一定進展,按年利率算,過去三個月的通貨膨脹率平均為 2%,較上個季度的 11% 有所下降。但即使有這樣的改善,當前物價水平依舊過高,打擊影響美國及世界各國的全球通膨是我首要的任務。」

市場估十一月升息 3 碼機率超 97%

此次 CPI 表現略高於預期,加強了市場認為美聯儲將繼續升息 3 碼的預期。據芝加哥商業交易所(CME)的 FedWatch Tool 數據顯示,目前升息 3 碼(75 基點)的機率約 97.8%;更激進的升息 4 碼(100 基點)機率升至 2.2%。

Source:CME Group

金融機構對當前通膨情況也不樂觀,認為當前問題的關鍵並不在於總體的價格增速,而在於通貨膨脹已滲透到服務業及住房市場。 摩根士丹利投資管理 Jim Caron 告訴彭博電視台:

「這太殘酷了……我確實認為物價增速將開始放緩,並且在某些領域它已經發生。但現在的問題是通膨已經從商品轉移,滲透到服務業當中。」

彭博社高級編輯 Chris Antsey 則對此回應:

「對於民主黨人來說,這是一場災難。今天是 11 月 8 日中期選舉前的最後一個 CPI 報告。

此時我們正經歷四年來最嚴重的通膨。」

利好 21
利空 1

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