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Glassnode:比特幣正處於「熊市轉牛市」的過渡期

By Benson Lai —— 2022-09-27
35 share / 3.6k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

根據 Glassnode 的數據,比特幣目前正處於歷史性的「熊轉牛」階段,也就是從空頭市場轉向多頭市場的過渡期。

 

Glassnode 近期報告顯示,比特幣的價格與「獲利中供應」(supply in profit,代表特定網絡中當前獲利的比特幣的絕對數量)的關聯性,通常會在過渡期期間多次跌破 0.75。

所謂「獲利中供應」,就是衡量在整體比特幣供應中,現在還有獲利的百分比比率。

這項指標是利用觀察每一枚比特幣的鏈上歷史,來觀察最後一次移動時的價格。如果前後一次售價低於當前比特幣的價值,那麼這枚比特幣當下就有未實現的獲利。

比特幣價格與獲利中供應的相關性顯示出,這兩項指標是否朝同一方向前進。下圖顯示,比特幣上述相關性在其價格歷史中的趨勢。

當相關性為正值,代表價格和獲利中供應朝同一方向前進;負相關則是兩者朝反方向前進。如上圖所示,比特幣在過去的每個價格週期中,在大部分的時間裡,這種相關性都高於 0.9。

然而在牛市轉熊市,或者熊市轉牛市的過渡期期間,這項指標多次跌破 0.75。

根據這份報告,這種偏差的情況會發生在熊市轉向牛市的期間,是因為在空頭市場後期,賣家已經無力再賣,剩餘投資人則因為挫折而不願意挪動資金,因此降低價格與獲利中供應之間的關聯性。

在牛市轉熊市的過渡期間,獲利中供應通常會激增至接近 100%,因為價格會飆至新高,因此減少了獲利中供應與價格的相關性。

在近期,這項指標多次出現跌破 0.75 門檻,顯示比特幣當前正處在熊市轉向牛市的過渡期。截至截稿,比特幣價格在 20,303.68 美元,過去七天上升約 6.04 %,過去一個月升幅達 2.65 %。

source: JPEX

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