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商業, 市場, 政策, 頭條

Fed 官員卡什卡利：FOMC 離控制住通膨「還有很長的路要走」

Posted on by Ken Ho

By Benson Lai —— 2022-07-30
39 share / 5.7k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

美國 Fed 週四宣布調高利率 3 碼，主席鮑爾會後表示，下次會議仍有可能大幅加息，但未來某個時刻放慢升息步伐是合適的。然而，Fed 鴿派代表人物 Neel Kashkari 昨日表示，距離控制通膨「還有很長的路要走」。

 

美國 Fed 以往鴿派代表人物，明尼阿波利斯聯儲行長 Neel Kashkari 在今年 3 月立場轉鷹，直言今年將需更激進升息並盡快縮表以緩解高居不下的通膨。

昨（29）日，他接受專訪時表示，市場已經過分地預期 Fed 將很快針對升息開始退縮，他們在控制物價上漲方面還有許多工作要做。

「我對市場的解讀感到驚訝。FOMC 團結一致，決心讓通膨率回落到 2%，我認為我們將繼續做我們需要做的事情，直到我們確信通膨正降至 2% 的路上，而我們距離那個目標還有很長的路要走。」

如核心通膨未降，可能繼續升 3 碼

Fed 官員本週在利率會議如市場預期升息 3 碼（75 個基點），連續第二次超大規模升息，將基準利率調升至 2.25%～2.5% 區間，處在 Fed 聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）所認為的中性環境，既不會刺激也不會減緩經濟增長。

目前投資者預測，隨著經濟放緩，Fed 可能在未來幾個月大幅放緩升息。事實上，債券市場定價表明投資者認為官員甚至可能在明年開始降息。Kashkari 對此直言，我不知道債券市場在得出這個結論時考慮到什麼。降息的門檻將「非常、非常高」。

他補充道，現在要知道 9 月份升息幅度還為時過早，但他個人認為在下次 Fed 利率會議上升息 2 碼「似乎是合理的」。但目前的通膨數據糟糕地令人驚訝，如核心 CPI（去除能源和食品價格）持續攀升，那他認為將需再一次升息 3 碼。 但他也坦言：

「沒有人知道 Fed 需要升息多少才能讓通膨順利回落。我們知道我們有工作要做，而且我們致力於做到這一點。」

利好 27
利空 0

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