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頭條, 商業, 市場

《財富》雜誌專訪 Vitalik 父子：市場有短期的恐懼，投機者會被淘汰

Posted on by Connie

by Connie —— 2022-06-21
43 share / 3.6k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

在《財富》雜誌的本次採訪中，Vitalik 和 Dima 父子談論了他們在加密領域中的旅程、以太坊對行業未來的遺憾和願景、備受期待的合併、Terra 生態系統的崩潰等等。

 

習慣加密貨幣波動性

以太坊創始人 Vitalik 並不擔心當前加密貨幣的崩潰勢頭，而且他不喜歡自己的創造用於投機。

Vitalik 的父親名叫 Dmitry Buterin，通常被稱為 Dima 。他是一位俄羅斯出生的工程師和企業家，隨後全家搬到了加拿大，Vitalik 在十幾歲的時候從他的父親那裡了解到比特幣。

Vitalik 和 Dima 告訴《財富》（Fortune）雜誌，他們已經習慣了加密貨幣的波動性，但是這個父親節，這個 DeFi 中最傑出的父子二人組向我們傳達了另一個訊息：加密貨幣還有哪些使用場景。

Vitalik 對《財富》雜誌表示：「加密貨幣以前曾有過較大的起伏，以後還會再次起起落落。低迷時期當然充滿挑戰，但通常也是培育重大項目的時期。」

期望金融以外的應用

儘管他已經是億萬富翁，但 Vitalik 解釋說金錢從來都不是他的重點或動力。他不喜歡以太坊用於投機，並且認為區塊鏈網路比金融有更多的使用場景。

Vitalik 和 Dima 都希望看到更多金融以外的應用，同時繼續改進以太坊及其技術，並且已經付諸行動。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾．普京（Vladimir Putin）2 月宣布進攻烏克蘭後，Vitalik 和 Dima 支持 The Ukraine DAO，該 DAO 組織是一個去中心化自治組織，在戰爭中籌集數百萬美元來支援烏克蘭人。父子倆都對 DAO 進行了捐贈，Dima 甚至還是 DAO 組織的多重簽名錢包管理員。

有時，Vitalik 在網站上發布他對區塊鏈未來的想法。例如，最近他分享了靈魂綁定代幣（Soulbound Tokens）的想法，其中個人憑證的記錄可以記錄在鏈上。此外，他寫了關於以太坊備受期待的合併升級（The Merge），以太坊將從工作量證明機制轉變為權益證明，並顯著降低其對環境的影響。

在本次採訪中，Vitalik 和 Dima 與《財富》雜誌談論了他們在加密領域中的旅程、以太坊對行業未來的遺憾和願景、備受期待的合併、Terra 生態系統的崩潰等等。採訪發生在加密貨幣大幅下跌之前的 6 月初，Vitalik 和 Dima 也在 6 月 15 日發表了關於加密市場的評論。

《財富》：Dima，你是什麼時候開始注意到 Vitalik 對數字感興趣的？

Dima：大約在 Vitalik 三歲。他的祖父是一個非常聰明的人，當時他正在教 Vitalik 數學、字母之類的東西。

就像人們通常用樂高積木建造建築物和其他東西。 Vitalik 真的很喜歡用它們來構建數字。看到這一點真的很迷人。我在蘇聯長大，獲得玩具的機會非常有限。所以在 Vitalik 成長的過程中，我想給他買很多很酷的玩具。我最開始選擇的是樂高積木，因為樂高積木是一個非常酷的拼搭套裝，看到他以截然不同的方式搭建積木真的很有趣。

Vitalik：來到加拿大後，我爸爸給我買了一些書讓我學習編程，我便開始編程。最開始我編程是為自己製作遊戲，我清楚地記得我從一開始就感覺編程非常有趣並被深深吸引。

《財富》：Dima，你首先介紹給 Vitalik 的加密貨幣是比特幣，對吧？最初是什麼吸引你關注比特幣？

Dima：嗯，我對新事物和新技術非常好奇，計算機及其周邊是人類知識中最富饒的領域之一，可以探索人類的好奇心。所以，我一直在聽這方面的播客（Podcast）。播客主持人也是一個非常好奇的人，他觸及了很多不同的主題。有一次在他的播客上，我聽說了比特幣，這聽起來很有意義。

我很高興 Vitalik 對很多事情都具有好奇心。對我來說，分享好奇的新事物總是很有趣，「哦，我發現了這個有趣的東西。嘿 Vitalik，看看吧。也許你會對它感興趣。」

Source： Dima Buterin 

《財富》：當 Vitalik 開始致力於構建以太坊時，你是怎麼想的？

Dima：我感到印象深刻的是，當時我們在家，Vitalik 與我分享了他的白皮書，它寫得非常好。我真的印象深刻，坦率地說，我並沒有那麼密切地關注加密貨幣，但是當我閱讀以太坊白皮書時，它對我來說很有意義。我認為這是 Vitalik 的才能之一。他可以把非常複雜的事情用通俗易懂的方式解釋清楚。

Vitalik：2013 年 12 月，我回到多倫多，我父親對我的研究很感興趣，所以我向他展示了以太坊白皮書，他覺得這很迷人。

《財富》：隨著以太坊獲得更多的關注，當人們開始使用它時，你是否感到驚訝？你有沒有預料到它會變成什麼樣子？

Vitalik：沒有。一開始我以為這只是一個小項目，我們會在三、四個月內完成，然後我就回到大學。但在一月份，我看到人們對這個項目非常感興趣，而且顯然需要更長的時間，我意識到必須重新規劃。

另一件我完全沒想到的事情是加密領域在 2017 年和 2021 年的變化如此之大。快速增長對我來說絕對是一個很大的驚喜。

《財富》：你們對目前的市場狀況有何看法？對未來有什麼擔憂或想法嗎？

Vitalik：加密行業曾經有過大幅的起伏，以後也會有起有落。低迷期當然具有挑戰性，但通常也是培育重大項目的時期。我有信心，以太坊生態系統將成為一個更加成熟和成功的區塊鏈生態系統，在未來十年滿足數百萬人對加密領域的希望和夢想。

Dima：市場是具有周期性的，尤其是加密市場。十多年來，我一直在關注加密貨幣，它會再次上漲，也會再次下跌。

就其長期潛力而言，對我來說沒有任何改變。我認為加密貨幣現在正在進入被大規模採用的時代。

增長曲線從來都不是一條直線，它沒有那麼平滑。現在，全球市場上有很多恐懼，有很多疑問，烏克蘭正在發生戰爭，美聯儲正在加息等等。但人類是有應變、適應能力的，所以，我們會經歷市場下跌，然後建造更多的東西。以太坊將合併為權益證明，這是非常令人興奮的事情。就加密前景而言，對我來說沒有任何變化。目前市場有一些短期的恐懼，投機者會被淘汰，是的，加密領域會有一段陣痛。

《財富》：自 Terra 生態系統崩潰以來，人們擔心系統性風險會擴散。其多米諾骨牌效應在所有加密生態中產生了影響，目前還有沒有缺少討論的方面？

Vitalik：我認為總的來說，Luna 崩潰是加密貨幣中重要的時刻之一，它提醒人們不能只是建立一個金融系統，然後假裝負面情況永遠不會發生。人們不能只考慮短期內的利率水平，還必須考慮長尾效應和這些非常特殊的情況。我認為這種洞察力最終將為加密生態系統帶來穩定性。

另外，我認為，每當在加密領域發生這種情況時，至少在我的經驗中，總是會有一線領導人出來在道德上澄清，你可以看到市場內不同的人如何反應，這更好地了解他們的性格以及他們實際上是什麼樣的人。

Dima：Luna 崩潰對很多人來說是一個非常痛苦的事件，他們在崩潰中損失了很多錢。

我希望我們不要局限於「讓我們 限制、讓我們禁止、讓我們停止這一切。」 這些口號。加密行業前進的路上有各種各樣的難題，我們可以從中吸取教訓，讓我們不斷前進，而不是試圖讓我們停在原地保持安全。

《財富》：對你來說，加密貨幣有什麼好處？你最熱衷的方面是什麼？

Dima：當俄羅斯宣布進攻烏克蘭時，支持烏克蘭的加密社群組織給我留下了深刻的印象（比如 The Ukraine DAO）。他們非常有效地使用加密貨幣來籌款，然後將資金集中到一個特定的城市，當地已經有基礎設施供人們將其兌換成當地貨幣，所以這真的很酷。

我非常熱衷於加密的另一個方面是，地球上任何地方的人都能夠訪問互聯網以接入他們的經濟體系。對我來說，這是巨大的進步。人們可以用加密區塊鏈來賺錢、參與公司、DAO 組織，可以在世界各地出售自己的藝術品、構建加密金融等項目。所以我對這方面充滿熱情。因為我是在蘇聯長大的，那裡與世界其他地方非常隔絕。

最後，我不得不說新的組織結構，即 DAO——我認為關於它們如何治理、如何控制資源、進行決策以及其他方面的問題還有很多需要弄清楚。但對我來說，這是人類組織方式的未來。

Vitalik：我絕對有同感。去年年底我在阿根廷之行中注意到的一件事是，那裡的監管機構對加密貨幣有著不同的態度。通常在西方，有時甚至連支持者都下意識地認為這是有錢人的賭博遊戲。

但在阿根廷這樣的地方，這是本地居民的一條生命線。那裡的人們有時使用加密貨幣是為了省錢，有時是為了買賣東西。有像 Proof Of Humanity 這樣的項目正試圖使用加密技術在那裡建立 UBI（全民基本收入）。有些項目正在嘗試使用 DAO 和去中心化仲裁以及所有這些其他技術進行試驗。

所以，我認為在世界的許多角落確實有很多這種需求。 NFT 絕對也是一個很好的例子。

《財富》：你最不喜歡的以太坊部分是投機屬性嗎？我知道你無法控制人類如何使用以太坊，但你是否對以太坊的任何使用方式感到遺憾？當你看到不太好的使用場景時感覺如何？

Vitalik：是的，我對很多金融投機的東西毫無興趣。我認為，有時以太坊確實與新興事物緊密相連——比如 NFT，我知道世界各地有很多藝術家正在透過 NFT 參與他們原本無法參與的全球經濟，但與此同時，也有富人向其他富人出售 300 萬美元的猴子。

我認為以太坊是一個開放的系統。這意味著，沒有人能夠精細控制誰可以使用它，誰不能使用它。我們應該積極支持許多更好地反映我們價值觀的應用程式，但話說回來，如果該系統完全去中心化，你就必須相信人們的選擇。

Dima：人類非常孤獨，我們總是在尋求他人的愛和認可。就像，「我有蘭博基尼、我有無聊猿 NFT、我有很多錢。」在我們內心會想，「哦，我糟透了，但如果我向世界展示我擁有所有這些很酷的東西，也許人們會愛我並跟我建立人際關係。」

《財富》：Vitalik，我看到你最近要求 Twitter 粉絲分享他們最不同意你的地方。這個想法是什麼引起的？

Vitalik：我很好奇。我只是想了解不同人群的意見，並給我的粉絲們一個平等談話的空間，他們可能害怕與我表達不同意見。這是一個有趣的實驗，我認為其中一些答案肯定很有趣。

《財富》：最大的收穫是什麼？

Vitalik：我不認為有什麼大收穫，有很多影響較小的反饋，我跟粉絲們在延長壽命方面存在一些分歧。另外，還有幾個人抱怨我的時尚風格。

有人說我不應該參與政治，或者我應該少參與政治。還有其他人說，「不，你實際上不應該那麼努力爭取中立，當你相信某件事時，你應該願意更公開地表達自己的觀點。」

但是，你不可能滿足所有人。

《財富》：你會向政治組織或政黨捐款嗎？

Vitalik：我認為向政黨捐款的挑戰在於，政治是一個非常複雜和非常混亂的系統，很容易產生與捐款目的完全不同的效果。我只是不太了解美國政治機器在內部是如何運作的。

我的看法是，我將專注於其他方面，到目前為止進展順利。

《財富》：很多人也對你在靈魂綁定代幣上的帖子持不同意見，你怎麼看回應？

Vitalik：肯定有很多積極的、有趣的討論，也有很多人誤解了這個概念。但這沒關係，我認為這是必須解決的問題，因為該發生的都會發生。

我看到的一個有趣的動態，並認為人們誤解了一些事情，我注意到人們傾向於將辯論定義為在兩個預先打包的解決方案之間做出選擇，人們喜歡比較兩種解決方案的所有好處和成本。而我喜歡的辯論風格是：讓我們逐個分解問題。

我認為總是有很多選擇，遠不止兩種。而在靈魂綁定代幣的討論中，人們想像著這個叫做靈魂綁定代幣的東西存在，然而它只是 PDF 文檔中的創意集合。

有時在鏈上做事比較有益，有時則是在鏈下。我們應該弄清楚在什麼情況下選擇鏈上或者鏈下，並努力製定最佳解決方案。

Dima：區塊鏈技術尚未得到充分探索的領域之一是聲譽系統，我認為我們會在該領域看到更多的事情發生。正如 Vitalik 所描述的，靈魂綁定代幣幾乎是思想和想法的集合。我們現在談論具體方法還為時過早，這很迷人，讓我們繼續探索這個。

Source： Dima Buterin 

《財富》：對於備受期待的以太坊合併，為什麼權益證明是更好的機制？

Vitalik：我認為以太坊切換到權益證明有很多好處。在環境問題方面，可以讓以太坊生態系統消耗更少的資源。此外，權益證明機制可以提高系統的安全性。它使攻擊成本變得更加昂貴，並且更容易從攻擊中恢復網路，這是人們沒有想到的。此外，權益證明機制更具抗審查性，運行驗證節點的計算機讓礦工更容易檢測和關閉程序。因此，權益證明機制具有一系列不同的優勢。

我認為將以太坊轉換為權益證明的目標是在 2014 年底左右的一個明確計劃。我認為自 2014 年初以來，它被描述為一種可能性，如果發現一種新算法會讓我們很高興。在 2014 年底，我們已經對這些訊息有足夠的信心，並準備好開始開發。

Dima：能源消耗的大幅降低顯然是有益的，當然還有網路的安全性。根據我所看到的所有研究文章，我堅信這是一件好事。這對網路來說非常重要。

我真的很高興看到這一點取得成果，因為我已經看到了很多人為此付出了巨大的努力。

但是有了權益證明機制並不意味著，「我們已經到了。這是最終完美的技術。」在某個時候，權益證明機制可能會被取代，雖然不知道將在什麼時候，但這是不可避免的。

《財富》：你是否對合併有一些顧慮，例如 Lido Finance 和中心化風險？這是你認為合併後最重要的事情嗎？

Vitalik：是的，我真的很擔心。我認為這是我們在試圖弄清楚如何長期改變權益證明機制時正在考慮的更大問題之一。但我也認為重要的是不要災難化地看待這個問題，目前很多人是過度消極了。

例如，即使 Lido 擁有以太坊信標鏈（Beacon 鏈）大約三分之一的質押存款。首先，如果攻擊者持有另外三分之一的質押存款，那麼我們無法恢復信標鏈或其他任何東西。但實際上，攻擊者能做的最糟糕的事情就是讓合併停止大約一天左右，這很麻煩，但也沒那麼可怕。所以，這是一回事。

另一件事是 Lido 不是單一的質押節點。我認為他們有類似 21 個節點代表在 Lido 內部運行這些驗證器，並且它們之間已實現去中心化。這就像攻擊者派一隊全副武裝的人進入大樓並進行綁架，攻擊者可以把 Lido 全部質押的 ETH 拿走，但必須去 21 個不同的地點，其中一些甚至都不知道它們在哪裡。所以，Lido 和中心化的質押平台甚至中心化的礦池有很大的不同。

我認為，即使是今天這樣的事情，也很容易管理，而且它仍然是一個健康的、去中心化的權益證明系統。與此同時，我認為在以太坊社群，我們確實為自己設定了非常高的標準，更高水平的去中心化絕對是我們正在積極努力爭取的目標。

《財富》：回顧整個加密領域，你認為好處大於壞處嗎？

Vitalik：我會說是的。我認為最響亮的加密應用並不是最常見的加密應用。有人用 300 萬美元交易無聊猿 NFT，有項目偶爾被黑客盜取 2000 萬美元，這些事件都是真實的。

但我認為加密貨幣日常所做的事情不是那樣的，不是像活躍的應用程式那樣，也不是像那些活動家所說的使用加密貨幣來保護自己，而是像世界各地的人群那樣，他們現在發現使用加密貨幣更容易在國際間轉移資金，讓企業跨國合作或接受他們的付款等等。有人在默默地做這些事，但這也是非常真實的使用場景。

Dima：當我們試圖評估任何事物的好壞時，它是非常複雜的。加密領域有很多不同的東西、項目和人等等，任何事物都有各種不同的結果。因此，我們有這些很棒的加密應用，也會有投機、騙局等等，這就是生活。

《財富》：總結一下，以太坊乃至加密領域如何向更好的方向發展？

Vitalik：顯然，我認為重要的事情之一是繼續改進以太坊的技術。

將以太坊切換到權益證明機制，使之成為一個更環保、更安全的系統；添加一些可擴展性改進，例如分片和 Rollup，這將大幅降低人們的交易費用；最後，讓生態系統變得足夠便宜，讓普通人可以使用它——只需做大量工作以使區塊鏈生態系統更安全、對用戶更友好，更容易讓許多不同類型的人參與進來。我真的希望能找回我們在 2015 年和 2016 年所擁有的一些建設性的實驗能力。

此外，我很高興看到出現不同類型的應用程式，特別是金融以外的應用程式，這是加密領域真正的增長。我認為 DAO 可以極大地改善人類協作、組建組織和共同工作。這確實需要我們進行大量的試驗，並弄清楚什麼樣的 DAO 機制才是有意義的。這是人們正在做的事情，並在這方面取得了很大進展。在未來我們將看到更多驚人的實驗和成功。

除了 DAO、以太坊身份和靈魂綁定代幣之外，還有基於出勤證明協議（Proof of Attendance）或人性證明（Proof Of Humanity）的應用程式等事情——我認為有很多非常了不起的事情發生在以太坊生態系統內部，而且只會變得更好。

Source：Dima Buterin 

《財富》：Dima，這個父親節，你有什麼父母的智慧之言要告訴 Vitalik 嗎？

Dima：為人父母是人類面臨的最大挑戰之一。除了 Vitalik，我還有兩個女兒，她們更年輕。支持另一個人的成長是人類的一個奇妙而富有挑戰性的事情，有這麼多的成長和這麼多的困難。我想祝所有的父母父親節快樂。

無論你做什麼，都可能會面臨失敗。我們都在努力為孩子們創造最好的未來，但未來充滿希望和未知。歸根結底，這不是關於我們對未來的想法，而是關於我們作為父母如何能夠更多地活在當下，我們如何能夠更加愛我們的孩子，並儘可能多地獲得支持。所以，我想慶祝為人父母的這個概念。

利好 20
利空 1

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