by Christy Chan—— 2022-06-15
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在加密貨幣市場重挫之際，Morgan Stanley 6 月 13 日發報告指出，以太坊（ETH）近期表現落後於比特幣（BTC）就像 2018 年熊市一樣，在通膨和貨幣緊縮背景下，市場將持續承壓。另外聯準會（Fed）近期逆回購規模已突破 2.2 兆美元，顯示銀行有過剩資金。
金融巨頭摩根史坦利週一（13 日）在一份市場報告中表示：美元流動性正在從市場中撤出，對美國聯準會（Fed）加息的預期正在損害加密貨幣價格；近期市值排名第二的以太幣（ETH）表現落後於比特幣（BTC），就像 2018 年加密市場低迷時期一樣。
帶領大摩區塊鏈分析團隊的分析師 Sheena Shah 寫道：「 當 ETH / BTC 相對下跌時，這表明更廣泛的加密熱情正在減弱，因為資金正在從波動性更大的競爭代幣中撤出。」
機構推動這次下跌、穩定幣發行量下滑
但儘管以太坊價格週期與 2018 年熊市相似，分析師指出，這一次主要是機構投資者推動賣壓；2018 年時則是零售交易活動佔據的份額要高得多。大摩表示，Fed 啟動的量化緊縮政策仍在繼續，推動 BTC 跌至 28,000 美元以下，這是一個重要的價格水平，因為這代表，去年曾購買 BTC 的任何投資者，現在都處於虧損狀態；並表示直到 2017 年的高點 19,500 美元左右之前，BTC 沒有明顯的價格水平值得關注。
另外報告也提到，穩定幣「發行量正在迅速收縮」，這導致從 5 月初以來，Defi 生態系統內的槓桿率減半，以及加密貨幣衍生品價格因偏離其基礎資產而變得不穩定。據 Coinmarketcap 數據，市值最大的穩定幣 USDT 市值已經從五月初旬的 831 億美元峰值，快速下跌 15 ％來到今日的 707 億美元水準；逆轉了自去年夏天以來快速上升的市值走勢。
Fed 逆回購規模突破 2.2 兆美元
加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 市場分析部門稍早發布報告指出，近期加密市場極端波動主要是由「宏觀經濟因素」造成，通貨膨脹水平不斷攀升、和聯準會持續加息的普遍宏觀經濟背景，皆對比特幣價格構成壓力。不過報告也提到，在加密貨幣生態系統中，比特幣的主導地位正持續上升中。
另外，由於投資者將大量風險資產轉換為現金，大量游資湧入聯準會隔夜逆回購操作 RRP，以存放過剩資金，目前規模已突破 2.2 兆美元，創下歷史新高。凸顯在利率攀升、金融市場震盪的背景下，投資人對避險的實質需求。
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