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摩根史坦利:當前以太坊表現不及 BTC 類似 2018 年熊市

by Christy Chan—— 2022-06-15
43 share / 2.8k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

在加密貨幣市場重挫之際,Morgan Stanley 6 月 13 日發報告指出,以太坊(ETH)近期表現落後於比特幣(BTC)就像 2018 年熊市一樣,在通膨和貨幣緊縮背景下,市場將持續承壓。另外聯準會(Fed)近期逆回購規模已突破 2.2 兆美元,顯示銀行有過剩資金。

 

金融巨頭摩根史坦利週一(13 日)在一份市場報告中表示:美元流動性正在從市場中撤出,對美國聯準會(Fed)加息的預期正在損害加密貨幣價格;近期市值排名第二的以太幣(ETH)表現落後於比特幣(BTC),就像 2018 年加密市場低迷時期一樣。

帶領大摩區塊鏈分析團隊的分析師 Sheena Shah 寫道:「 當 ETH / BTC 相對下跌時,這表明更廣泛的加密熱情正在減弱,因為資金正在從波動性更大的競爭代幣中撤出。」

機構推動這次下跌、穩定幣發行量下滑

但儘管以太坊價格週期與 2018 年熊市相似,分析師指出,這一次主要是機構投資者推動賣壓;2018 年時則是零售交易活動佔據的份額要高得多。大摩表示,Fed 啟動的量化緊縮政策仍在繼續,推動 BTC 跌至 28,000 美元以下,這是一個重要的價格水平,因為這代表,去年曾購買 BTC 的任何投資者,現在都處於虧損狀態;並表示直到 2017 年的高點 19,500 美元左右之前,BTC 沒有明顯的價格水平值得關注。

另外報告也提到,穩定幣「發行量正在迅速收縮」,這導致從 5 月初以來,Defi 生態系統內的槓桿率減半,以及加密貨幣衍生品價格因偏離其基礎資產而變得不穩定。據 Coinmarketcap 數據,市值最大的穩定幣 USDT 市值已經從五月初旬的 831 億美元峰值,快速下跌 15 %來到今日的 707 億美元水準;逆轉了自去年夏天以來快速上升的市值走勢。

Fed 逆回購規模突破 2.2 兆美元

加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 市場分析部門稍早發布報告指出,近期加密市場極端波動主要是由「宏觀經濟因素」造成,通貨膨脹水平不斷攀升、和聯準會持續加息的普遍宏觀經濟背景,皆對比特幣價格構成壓力。不過報告也提到,在加密貨幣生態系統中,比特幣的主導地位正持續上升中。

另外,由於投資者將大量風險資產轉換為現金,大量游資湧入聯準會隔夜逆回購操作 RRP,以存放過剩資金,目前規模已突破 2.2 兆美元,創下歷史新高。凸顯在利率攀升、金融市場震盪的背景下,投資人對避險的實質需求。

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