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預警 FED 本週升息三碼 比特幣單日慘跌15%

by Ken Ho —— 2022-06-15
49 share / 4.7k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

比特幣單日重挫超 15% 後略為回升。隨著美國通膨創下 40 年新高,市場預期聯準會將採取更積極的貨幣緊縮政策,美國聯準會本週召開利率決策會議,市場預估聯準會升息 75 個基點的機率,已從 1 週前的 3.9% 躍升至當前的 99.3%。

 

Source: TradingView

 

估計即將升息

估計聯準會 6 月、7 月將升息 75 個基點,9 月將升息 50 個基點。TD Securities 也預估,聯準會 6 月、7 月的升息幅度將相同。

Homestead Funds 固定收益投資主管 Mauricio Agudelo 表示:「市場已迅速調整未來幾次會議的升息預期,包括 6 月和 7 月各升息 75 個基點。在我們看來,市場已在為聯準會收緊貨幣政策做準備,因此聯準會必須兌現承諾。」

投資者擔憂,由於 75 個基點的升息幅度將是 1994 年以來最大,聯準會此舉恐對股市估值產生負面衝擊,尤其是科技股,並危及新冠肺炎疫情後的復甦,標普 500 指數已從近期收盤高點下跌超過 20%,墜入熊市。

記者 Steve Liesman:升息 275 個基點

《CNBC》高級經濟記者 Steve Liesman 也在一檔節目中表示,聯準會可能本週就會升息 75 個基點,他並在 Twitter 上分享 Refinitiv 數據指出,期貨市場目前預期,聯準會在今年剩餘時間將 2 次升息 3 碼、2 次升息 2 碼、1 次升息 1 碼,總計聯準會預估將在今年剩餘時間內升息 275 個基點。

根據該數據,期貨市場認為,聯準會在 6 月、7 月升息 75 個基點的可能性分別高達 87%、90%,在 9 月、11 月升息 50 個基點的可能性分別為 63%、84%,在 12 月升息 25 個基點的可能性為 56%。

Source: Twitter

利好 21
利空 1

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