by Ken Ho —— 2022-05-10
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Elon Musk 收購 Twitter 的 SEC 文件中出現了多間幣圈公司參與股權融資,在社群引起了不少討論。今日,紐約時報更是公開了其向投資人們展示的 Twitter 計劃及財務目標,令人不禁不佩服他的雄心壯志。
Elon Musk 的 Twitter 發展目標
1. 六年內 Twitter 收入將翻 5 倍
Elon Musk 聲稱,至 2028 年,他將把 Twitter 的年收入從去年的 50 億美元增加至 264 億美元。
2. Twitter 對廣告收入的依賴減少至 50% 以下
2020 年的廣告收入佔 Twitter 總收入約 90%,Elon Musk 預計將其將至 45% 左右。至 2028 年,廣告將產生 120 億美元的收入,訂閱收入則接近 100 億美元。其他收入將來自數據許可等業務。
3. 持續增加支付業務帶來的收入
2023 年的支付業務將為 Twitter 帶來 1,500 萬美元的收入,至 2028 年將增長到約 13 億美元。當前 Twitter 的支付業務包含小費及購物服務,但帶來的收入微乎其微。因此有人推測 Elon Musk 將為 Twitter 引入數位支付服務。
4. 提高 20% 的每用戶平均收入
每用戶平均收入 (average revenue per user) 代表一個時間段內運營商從每個用戶所得到的利潤。Elon Musk 預計,他可以將 Twitter 的每用戶平均收入從去年的 24.83 美元,提高至 2028 年的 30.22 美元。
5. 六年內超過 9 億用戶
Elon Musk 目標將 Twitter 的總用戶數將從去年底的 2.17 億人,增長至 2025 年的近 6 億人及 2028 年的 9.31 億人。大部分增長將來自 Twitter 的廣告支持業務,包括 Twitter Blue (用戶每個月支付 3 美元以客製化其使用體驗)。
Twitter Blue 的用戶預計於 2025 年達到 6,900 萬人,至 2028 年將達到 1.59 億人。
6. 推出一款名為 X 的新產品
Elon Musk 尚未公布此產品有何功能,但預計會於 2023 開始募資,並於第一年吸引 900 萬用戶,2028 年將擁有 1.04 億用戶。此外,Elon Musk 也暗示 Twitter 會推出無廣告服務。
7. 在裁員數百人之後僱用大量名員工
Elon Musk 預計 Twitter 於 2025 年將擁有 11,072 名員工,當前約為 7,500 名左右。員工總數預計會波動劇烈,知情人士表示,Elon Musk 可能會在招募新的工程人才之前進行裁員。
8. 大幅提高自由現金流
作為 Elon Musk 收購計劃的一部分,Twitter 將增加約 130 億美元的債務。然而,其預計 Twitter 的自由現金流將在 2025 年增長到 32 億美元,至 2028 年將達到 94 億美元,並用於償還債務。此外,即便營運費用及成本增加,自由現金流也會同步增長。
註:自由現金流顧名思義即為公司可自由運用的現金流,是從營運獲得的現金流量扣減維持現有營運所需的資本支出及稅金後之餘額。企業可用這些現金為公司的成長擴充、發放股東股利、清償負債或是預留下來以度過未來可能的景氣蕭條期。
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