by Connie —— 2022-04-25
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比特幣今早一度跌破 3.9 萬美元,加密貨幣市場呈現 「極度恐懼」狀態,恐懼與貪婪指數目前已降至 23。機構資金正呈現流出趨勢,加上聯準會 5 月很大可能升息 0.5% ,市場短期內恐難以迎來任何有意義的上升勢頭。
比特幣持續下探
比特幣(BTC)在 21 日突破達到 4.3 萬美元後開始持續下探,繼 22 日跌破 4 萬美元大關後,今日又進一步跌破 3.9 萬美元,觸及 38,693.12 美元低點。
美國聯準會 5 月可能升息 0.5%,道瓊工業指數、納斯達克綜合指數上週五分別下挫 2.8%、2.7%,加密貨幣市場也跟隨美股走跌,表明投資者目前對股票、加密貨幣等風險較高資產持謹慎態度。
隨著加密貨幣市場近期陷入低迷,加密貨幣市場恐懼與貪婪指數(Crypto Fear & Greed Index)最近 1 週以來一直維持在「極度恐懼」狀態,上週為 24,目前降至 23 。
Source: Alternative.me
加密貨幣對沖基金 BitBull Capital 執行長 Joe DiPasquale 表示,「比特幣本週未能保持 4.2 萬美元這一水平、再次被阻絕,我們持續預期 3.8 萬美元的水平將作為支撐位,但持續測試該區間範圍,恐將跌至 3.2 萬美元至 3.5 萬美元。從上行角度來看,4.2 美元仍是個強大的阻力位。」
機構資金大量流出
過去數個月以來,交易所中的比特幣呈現大量流出,這表明囤幣情緒依然存在,散戶、專業投資者都在從交易所買入比特幣,並轉入私人和冷錢包儲存。機構基金正呈現流出趨勢,以加拿大首檔比特幣 ETF 「Purpose Bitcoin ETF」為例,該 ETF 資金近幾個月出現大量流出,這表明大型交易商很有可能正在出售自身持有的比特幣。
在今年 1 月時,Purpose Bitcoin ETF 持倉量最高曾達到 3.6 萬顆比特幣,目前卻已降至 3 萬顆,持倉量足足下滑了 20%,這表明機構方很可能是在預期聯準會即將啟動激進貨幣緊縮週期之前,採取規避風險策略。
展望未來
由於聯準會在 5 月 3 日利率決策會議上升息 0.5% 的可能性有所增加,短期而言,散戶、專業投資者可能都會採取規避風險策略,基本上,加密貨幣市場暫時難以迎來任何有意義的上升勢頭,因為不會有來自投資者的積極買入。
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