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頭條, 商業, 市場, 觀點

指標指向比特幣接近底部：比特幣態度從中性轉為積極

Posted on by Connie

By Connie —— 2022-07-06
38 share / 3.9k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________\

方舟投資（ARK）對比特幣的整體態度從「中性轉為積極」，創辦人 Cathie Wood 近日在節目中表示，加密市場與前幾週相比正處於更好的位置。多項指標表明比特幣可能已經接近底部，不過假如聯準會持續緊縮，亦有可能進一步下跌。

 

比特幣整體態度由中性轉為積極

方舟投資（ARK）創辦人 Cathie Wood 提到方舟投資對比特幣的總體態度從「中性轉為積極」，表示：「我們正在等待更多的投降式拋售訊號，當然，時間將在這裡的系統性方面給出答案。在過去幾天裡，我們沒有聽到另一個壓力訊號，所以這也是好事。」

她亦指出，目前的市場低迷確保加密貨幣行業的長期前景，並強調加密市場的透明度可能會對傳統金融市場產生重大影響。由於其透明度和超額擔保（Over-collateralization）機制，人們對加密貨幣生態系統的信任會比她認為的傳統金融市場更高。

指標顯示比特幣可能到底

方舟投資分析師 Yassine Elmandjra 指出比特幣的未實現淨利潤/淨損失比率已經下降到低於總成本基礎的 17%，比特幣價格可能會再次發生修正，在前幾次市場週期接近底部時，NUPL 大幅下降超過 -25%。多項比特幣指標指向比特幣價格可能已經接近底部。

Elmandjra 亦表示，最近比特幣價格第四次同時跌破了短期、長期成本基礎和 200 週移動平均線（200 WMA），這些水平在歷史上代表著明顯的「世代底部」。

比特幣價格、鏈上成本基礎與 200 WMA 走勢圖（Source: Yassine Elmandjra)

比特幣前景影響因素

儘管指標顯示比特幣可能到底，未排除美國聯準會將繼續升息的可能性。Yassine Elmandjra 分析了 Markit CDX 北美投資級指數（The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index），該指數由北美 125 家公司發行的信用違約交換（Credit Default Swap，CDS，一種讓投資人移轉信用風險的衍生性金融商品）組成，若 CDX 指數越高代表市場評估投資級公司債違約風險越高。

Elmandjra 指出，從去年 9 月以來，CDS 指數增加超過 1 倍，殖利率曲線趨緩，若聯準會持續緊縮，比特幣等風險資產可能會繼續受到影響。

Markit CDX 北美投資級指數利差（Source: Yassine Elmandjra)

利好 21
利空 0

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