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指標指向比特幣接近底部:比特幣態度從中性轉為積極

By Connie —— 2022-07-06
38 share / 3.9k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________\

方舟投資(ARK)對比特幣的整體態度從「中性轉為積極」,創辦人 Cathie Wood 近日在節目中表示,加密市場與前幾週相比正處於更好的位置。多項指標表明比特幣可能已經接近底部,不過假如聯準會持續緊縮,亦有可能進一步下跌。

 

比特幣整體態度由中性轉為積極

方舟投資(ARK)創辦人 Cathie Wood 提到方舟投資對比特幣的總體態度從「中性轉為積極」,表示:「我們正在等待更多的投降式拋售訊號,當然,時間將在這裡的系統性方面給出答案。在過去幾天裡,我們沒有聽到另一個壓力訊號,所以這也是好事。」

她亦指出,目前的市場低迷確保加密貨幣行業的長期前景,並強調加密市場的透明度可能會對傳統金融市場產生重大影響。由於其透明度和超額擔保(Over-collateralization)機制,人們對加密貨幣生態系統的信任會比她認為的傳統金融市場更高。

指標顯示比特幣可能到底

方舟投資分析師 Yassine Elmandjra 指出比特幣的未實現淨利潤/淨損失比率已經下降到低於總成本基礎的 17%,比特幣價格可能會再次發生修正,在前幾次市場週期接近底部時,NUPL 大幅下降超過 -25%。多項比特幣指標指向比特幣價格可能已經接近底部。

Elmandjra 亦表示,最近比特幣價格第四次同時跌破了短期、長期成本基礎和 200 週移動平均線(200 WMA),這些水平在歷史上代表著明顯的「世代底部」。

比特幣價格、鏈上成本基礎與 200 WMA 走勢圖(Source: Yassine Elmandjra)

比特幣前景影響因素

儘管指標顯示比特幣可能到底,未排除美國聯準會將繼續升息的可能性。Yassine Elmandjra 分析了 Markit CDX 北美投資級指數(The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index),該指數由北美 125 家公司發行的信用違約交換(Credit Default Swap,CDS,一種讓投資人移轉信用風險的衍生性金融商品)組成,若 CDX 指數越高代表市場評估投資級公司債違約風險越高。

Elmandjra 指出,從去年 9 月以來,CDS 指數增加超過 1 倍,殖利率曲線趨緩,若聯準會持續緊縮,比特幣等風險資產可能會繼續受到影響。

Markit CDX 北美投資級指數利差(Source: Yassine Elmandjra)

利好 21
利空 0

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