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【分析】BTC 距離歷史高位下跌超過 62% 各名人如何回應?

by Iris Wu —— 2022-06-13
49 share / 5.2k views

_________________________________________________________________________________________

加密市場在本週末繼續迎來一波下行。數據顯示,BTC 跌破 26000 美元。距離 2021 年 11 月的歷史高位 69020 美元一枚,已下跌超 62%。隨著大盤的下行,各項加密指數表現均不理想。

 

比特幣礦工收入跌幅達 56%

數據顯示,當前比特幣礦工日均收入跌幅已達 56%,礦業市場仍然處於低位。由於礦工收入不理想,比特幣全網算力水平也受到影響,過去一個月 BTC 算力已下跌超 10%,每小時區塊生成數量也減少至 5.85 BTC。

Glassnode 數據顯示,以太坊虧損地址數量(7日MA)達到 36,321,323.268,創歷史新高。以太坊盈利地址百分比(7d MA)跌至 55.667%,創22個月來新低。

Source: Glassnode

而隨著近兩日的連續下跌,據 Dune Analytics 的數據顯示,主流 DeFi 借貸協議過去 24 小時共清算超 1270 萬美元。 DeFi 協議總鎖倉量跌破 1000 億美元,DeFi 協議總鎖倉量(TVL)達到 965.3 億美元,24 小時跌幅為 5.07%。投資加密的公司同樣不好過,Watcher.Guru 發 Twitter 稱,MicroStrategy 的比特幣投資賬面現在損失了約 3.3 億美元。

此前與 DeFi 一樣火爆市場的 NFT 表現同樣不佳。 DEXterlab 的一項調查顯示,超過 64% 的 NFT 投資者表示他們購買NFT是為了「賺錢」。雖然大多數 NFT 投資者表示他們是為了賺錢,但他們中的大多數人還沒有從他們在該領域的投資中獲利。根據該報告,大約 58% 的 NFT 投資者尚未從該領域獲利。

通脹新高影響加密行情

數據顯示美國通脹再創 40 年新高,加密貨幣整體出現更廣泛的回落,以太坊一度跌 5% 至 2021 年 3 月以來最低水平,比特幣則跌破 26000 美元,刷新逾一年低位。美國通脹數據超出預期,令物價上漲可能見頂的希望破滅。

據分析,即使早已「實際宣布」6 月將加息 50 個基點,美聯儲主席鮑威爾仍可能在下週四凌晨釋放出人意料的鷹派信號。 5月 CPI 數據強化了市場對於美聯儲到9月份繼續加息50個基點的預期。一些投資者甚至押注,如果通脹壓力沒有降溫,美聯儲可能大幅加息 75 個基點。

加密貨幣交易平台 Luno 的企業發展和國際副總裁 Vijay Ayyar 表示,可能看到當前的看跌情緒持續到下週,如果回顧之前的熊市,比特幣通常會下跌80%  以上,山寨幣跌幅通常超過 90%。如果情況繼續,接下來一兩個月比特幣價格將低得多。

FTX CEO 兼創始人 SBF 在 Consensus 2022 大會上發言表示,由於通脹高企導致的高利率預期引發了加密市場和股票市場的下跌。這並不一定代表加密市場進入了冬天。現在正是打造出色的產品並提升監管明確性的好時機。我們需要的是真正好的產品而不僅僅因為該產品基於加密技術。

未來贏家或是機構

面對下跌,不少觀點認為不應冒險投資加密資產。 CNBC 主持人 Jim Cramer 表示,他堅信數字資產 BTC 和 ETH 的價值,但同時警告投資者不應冒險投資。根據CNBC Make It最近的一份報告,儘管Cramer是BTC和ETH的信徒,但他表示加密資產具有高度投機性,在交易者投資組合中的佔比不應超過 5%。 ,交易者更不應該借錢投資加密資產。

此外,愛德華·斯諾登在德克薩斯州奧斯汀舉行的 Consesus 2022 大會上談到了加密和互聯網隱私。愛德華·斯諾登認為加密貨幣的使用更有價值,但他不鼓勵人們把錢投入加密貨幣作為一種投資。

對機構而言未有威脅

不過,儘管加密市場下行,投資者虧損加劇,但這對於機構而言似乎並未構成威脅。根據普華永道 (PwC) 的第四次年度全球加密對沖基金報告,89 家對沖基金參與了 2022 年第一季度進行的一項調查。研究顯示,38% 的傳統對沖基金已經投資於加密貨幣,高於一年前的 21%。此外,目前投資於數字資產的受訪實體中有三分之二希望在 2022 年底之前增加其配置。不參與此類投資的傳統對沖基金經理從去年的 79% 降至 62%。與此同時,29% 的未購買數字資產的人要么正在製定投資計劃,要么處於投資計劃的後期階段。另一方面,普華永道的報告指出,全球專業加密對沖基金的估計數量為 300 家,並補充說在過去兩年中以加速的速度創建了新實體。加密對沖基金交易量最大的數字資產是比特幣,其次是以太坊。

而著名加密貨幣分析師 Benjamin Cowen 也對加密的未來表現出信心。他評論了對加密貨幣在當前熊市中的表現的預期。熊市將使大多數投資者的 BTC價值最大化。 Cown 還認為,目前 45.6% 左右的 BTC 市值佔比將在今年晚些時候增加到 60%。

Source: Beincrypto.com

資料來源:meio

利好 23
利空 1

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